Video updates

Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.

Weekly Economic Insight Video

7 August:

The New Zealand economy has, so far, been more resilient than anticipated in the face of COVID-19. The Treasury is going to have to upgrade its economic forecasts, with important consequences for its forecasts of government debt. However, we expect the RBNZ will keep its monetary policy stance unchanged next week.

31 July:

Unemployment is not rising as fast as expected, probably because employers are making more use of reduced hours and pay reductions than layoffs. That means the pain of the Covid recession will be more diffused than past recession, which tended to hit fewer people particularly hard.

Agri Economic Insight Video

We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.

31 July:

Global COVID case numbers continue to head north at a rapid pace. However, of the five countries accounting for the bulk of the increase, only the US has implications for NZ agricultural exports. Meanwhile, with the more important Chinese and East Asian markets faring “less bad” COVID wise, we are cautiously optimistic that overall agricultural exports can perform relatively well over the coming year.

17 July:

Dairy prices jumped at the auction last week. In fact, whole milk powder prices have now fully erased the earlier COVID-related falls. This price lift bodes well for our 2020/21 milk price forecast of $6.50/kg. If anything, though, the very strong result means that we now see a higher milk price than that mark as being more likely than lower one.