Curtain Raiser: RBNZ OCR Review, March 2018 - 22 March 2018
The RBNZ left its OCR guidance unchanged. From here, attention will turn to the new PTA, to be signed within a day or two.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 21 March 2018
RBNZ OCR preview, March 2018 – Last turn at bat - 16 March 2018
Acting Governor Spencer’s last OCR decision is likely to be a low-key affair, with no real surprises in the data in recent weeks. We expect the OCR to remain on hold until late 2019.
NZ Q4 GDP review – Subdued growth persists - 15 March 2018
December quarter GDP grew by 0.6%, in line with our forecast. We expect growth to remain subdued in the near term, due to growth constraints and the uncertain impact of the new Government’s policies.
NZ current account, Q4 2017 – Well contained - 14 March 2018
The current account deficit widened in the year to December, but remains at levels consistent with an improvement in New Zealand’s external imbalances.
NZ Q4 GDP and BoP preview – Late fade - 9 March 2018
The New Zealand economy’s momentum appears to have eased over the course of 2017.
NZ building work put in place, December quarter 2017 - 7 March 2018
Fortnightly Agri Update - 7 March 2018
Q4 2017 Retail spending review - 23 February 2018
Fortnightly Agri Update - 21 February 2018
Get it? A short note on our GDP and OCR forecasts compared to the Reserve Bank's - 12 February 2018
Stay on target – Review of the Feb 2018 Monetary Policy Statement - 8 February 2018
A review of the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement.
NZ labour market review, Q4 2017 – All work, no pay - 2 February 2018
New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest since 2008. But wage growth remains subdued, suggesting that the labour market has room to tighten further.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 7 February 2018
NZ labour market preview, Q4 2017 – Unemployment declining - 2 February 2018
We expect a further drop in the unemployment rate to a nine-year low of 4.5%. However, we may see some payback for the sharp spikes in employment and participation in the September quarter.
The great moderation: Preview of the February 2018 Monetary Policy Statement - 1 February 2018
We expect the RBNZ to remain firmly on hold.
NZ CPI review Q4 2017 – Imported inflation remains absent - 25 January 2018
Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in the December quarter, with widespread softness in imported goods prices. While the era of uncomfortably low inflation may have passed, there is little sign of a resurgence.
NZ CPI preview, Q4 2017 – Fuelled up and on the go - 17 January 2018
We expect a 0.4% rise in the December quarter CPI, led by higher prices for fuel, airfares and accommodation. Underlying inflation is expected to remain close to – but still below – the Reserve Bank’s 2% target.
NZ business opinion, Q4 2017 – Confidence down, prices up - 16 January 2018
Business confidence fell further in the December quarter, some but not all of which could be put down to the change of government. However, more firms expect costs and prices to rise as the economy runs closer to full capacity.
NZ Q3 GDP review – It’s the most wonderful time of the year - 21 December 2017
September quarter GDP was better than we expected, but the real surprise was the extent of the upward revisions to GDP over the last few years. The apparent slowdown in per-capita growth has largely disappeared.
NZ current account, Q3 2017 – Better times - 20 December 2017
The current account deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP in the year to September. New Zealand’s external imbalances are looking more manageable.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 20 December 2017
Weather is a major factor that affects NZ Agricultural practices and economic growth.
New Zealand Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2017 - 14 December 2017
The Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update showed surprisingly little change in the bottom-line projections compared to previous forecasts, but this was based on economic forecasts that we view as too optimistic.
NZ Q3 GDP and BoP preview – Soft spot - 14 December 2017
The September quarter is likely to mark the weakest point for GDP growth this year. We expect a narrowing of the current account deficit.
Home Truths, October 2017 - A brief respite - 13 December 2017
Home Truths argues that the current housing market upturn will be short lived.
NZ Local Knowledge - 7 December 2017
The New Zealand economy slowed in the September quarter, but looks to have made a strong start to the December quarter.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 6 December 2017
Weather is a major factor that affects NZ Agricultural practices and economic growth.
NZ building work put in place, September quarter 2017 - 5 December 2017
Construction activity picked up in September, rising by 2.7%. This was mainly related to a lift in residential building.
RBNZ eases lending restrictions a little - 29 November 2017
The Reserve Bank announced a modest loosening of loan-to-value limits for housing lending next year, as housing market risks have diminished.
NZ retail spending review, September quarter 2017 - 23 November 2017
Retail sales growth pulled back in September as earlier boosts to spending faded. We expect spending growth will remain modest over the coming year.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 22 November 2017
Glass half full: Review of the November 2017 Monetary Policy Statement - 9 November 2017
The RBNZ left its OCR guidance unchanged, but this was based on optimistic GDP forecasts.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 8 November 2017
Tumbling Kiwi keeps RBNZ on track – Preview of the Nov 2017 Monetary Policy Statement - 2 November 2017
Preview of the November 2017 Monetary Policy Statement.
NZ labour market review, Q3 2017 – Room for more? - 1 November 2017
The unemployment rate improved further in the September quarter. But wage growth remains subdued, suggesting that the economy is still shy of what could be considered full employment.
NZ labour market preview, September quarter 2017 - 25 October 2017
We expect that the labour market continued its gradual strengthening over the September quarter.
Home Truths, October 2017 - Unchartered waters - 25 October 2017
Home Truths investigates prospects for New Zealand’s housing market following the election.
A step to the left – First impressions of a new Government - 20 October 2017
New Zealand First have formed a minority coalition government with Labour, with confidence and supply from the Greens. We assess the likely impact on the economy.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 18 October 2017
NZ CPI review Q3 2017 – On the house - 17 October 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.5% for the quarter, as expected. Annual inflation is close to the RBNZ’s target midpoint, but the risk of a break higher is low if the housing market remains subdued as we expect.
NZ CPI preview, September quarter 2017 – Signs of life - 12 October 2017
September quarter inflation is shaping up to be livelier than the RBNZ expected, though still in the lower half of the target range.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 4 October 2017
NZ Local Knowledge - 3 October 2017
Monthly indicators suggest weaker growth momentum coming into the September quarter.
NZ business opinion, Q3 2017 – More of the same - 3 October 2017
Headline confidence down, but survey details consistent with steady growth.
Subtle changes – Review of the Sep 2017 OCR decisions - 28 September 2017
The RBNZ left the OCR outlook unchanged, but hinted at a lower GDP growth forecast.
New Zealand’s 2017 election: Implications for financial markets - 25 September 2017
New Zealand’s general election left New Zealand First in the monarch-maker position. We explore the implications for financial markets and the economy.
Tin Whistle – Preview of the RBNZ OCR Review - 22 September 2017
The RBNZ is likely to play a straight bat at its OCR Review next week.
NZ Q2 GDP review – Modest rebound - 21 September 2017
NZ GDP growth benefited from a one-off tourism boost and a rebound from some temporary disruptions, but the underlying pace of growth remains subdued.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 20 September 2017
A guide to the 2017 New Zealand election for financial markets - 19 September 2017
This bulletin previews New Zealand’s General Election, scheduled for Saturday 23 September.
NZ GDP and Balance of Payments Preview, June quarter 2017 - 14 September 2017
Following softness in the previous two quarters, we estimate that GDP rose by 0.8% in the June quarter, to be up 2.8% over the past year. The annual current account deficit is expected to remain around 3.1% of GDP.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 6 September 2017
Fortnightly Agri Update - 16 August 2017
RBNZ MPS review, August 2017 – A matter of time - 10 August 2017
The RBNZ expects to keep interest rates low for a long time in order to generate a sustained lift in inflation. We now expect OCR hikes to be delayed until the end of 2019.
Monetary Policy Statement preview, August 2017 - 4 August 2017
The RBNZ may well surprise markets by emphasising the recent run of weak data and the high exchange rate. The RBNZ will probably reiterate that it is not considering OCR hikes within the foreseeable future.
NZ labour market review, June quarter 2017 - 2 August 2017
June’s labour market figures were very close to market expectations. Unemployment fell to 4.8% (down from 4.9%). Looking through quarter-to-quarter volatility, the economy looks to be expanding at a moderate pace.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 2 August 2017
NZ labour market preview, June quarter 2017 - 28 July 2017
New Zealand’s June quarter labour market figures are expected to show that employment is continuing to rise, underpinned by firm economic activity. However, growing labour force participation means that the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.9%.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 19 July 2017
NZ CPI review Q2 2017 – Been and gone - 18 July 2017
The jump in March quarter consumer prices was followed by a muted June quarter, taking annual inflation down to 1.7%.
NZ CPI preview, June quarter 2017 - Back down below - 13 July 2017
After a strong March quarter outturn, we expect a subdued 0.1% rise in consumer prices over the June quarter, taking annual inflation down to 1.8%.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 5 July 2017
NZ Regional Economic Confidence, June quarter 2017 - 28 June 2017
Regional economic confidence improved in most parts of New Zealand in the June quarter. However, confidence has continued to slide in the Auckland region, and remains below its highs in Canterbury.
RBNZ OCR review, June 2017 – A statement of neutrality - 22 June 2017
The RBNZ remains in a firmly neutral stance, with recent developments having a balanced impact on the inflation outlook. We expect no change in the OCR until 2019.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 21 June 2017
NZ Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence, June quarter 2017 - 19 June 2017
June saw widespread gains in consumer confidence. However, spending appetites have softened. Households don’t seem worried about debt repayment, despite high levels of debt.
RBNZ OCR preview, June 2017 – Firmly, firmly neutral - 16 June 2017
We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 1.75% and reaffirm its neutral bias. The starting point for the economy is softer than expected, and the recent jump in inflation will be regarded as temporary.
NZ Q1 GDP review – Coming up short again - 15 June 2017
GDP fell short of expectations again, rising by 0.5% in the March quarter. Some of the weakness is likely to be temporary, but the broader picture is that growth per-person remains quite modest.
NZ current account, Q1 2017 – No cause for alarm - 14 June 2017
New Zealand’s current account deficit widened in the March quarter, but some of the drivers appear to be temporary and the nation’s funding requirement remains manageable.
NZ Local Knowledge - 13 June 2017
A reasonably strong set of activity indicators for April, but the pace of growth is past its peak.
NZ Q1 GDP and BoP preview – There and back again - 9 June 2017
We expect a 0.8% rise in GDP for the March quarter, as dairy and mining output rebound from a weak December quarter. The current account deficit is expected to widen as weak export volumes outweigh higher prices.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 7 June 2017
NZ building work put in place, March 2017 quarter - 6 May 2017
Construction softened in early 2017, while cost pressures continue to mount.
NZ Budget 2017 review - 25 May 2017
Having your cake and eating it too.
Budget 2017 First Impressions - 25 May 2017
Having your cake and eating it too.
NZ Budget 2017 preview – More of everything - 24 May 2017
A stronger tax take means room for both more spending and larger surpluses.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 17 May 2017
RBNZ May 2017 Monetary Policy Statement review - 11 May 2017
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged in May, and continued to signal an extended period of low rates.
NZ Local Knowledge - 10 May 2017
Activity indicators were mixed in March. Growth in household spending looks to have lost some momentum, while building consent issuance and agriculture production have recovered from slumps late last year.
RBNZ MPS preview, May 2017 – A new challenge - 5 May 2017
We expect the Reserve Bank to hold the OCR at 1.75%, but with a stronger signal that the next move in rates will be up.
NZ labour market review, March quarter 2017 - 3 May 2017
New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the March quarter, a lower level than analysts had expected. This was underpinned by firm employment growth.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 3 May 2017
NZ Q1 labour market preview - 27 April 2017
Jobs growth is expected to remain firm in Q1. However, increases in the labour force means the unemployment rate will remain steady. Wage growth remains modest.
NZ CPI review Q1 2017 – Inflation pulse strengthening - 20 April 2017
The underlying pace of inflation in New Zealand is picking up, although the headline inflation rate overstates how quickly and abruptly this has happened.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 19 April 2017
Early arrival - NZ CPI preview, Q1 2017 - 13 April 2017
We expect annual inflation to reach 2% in the March quarter, boosted by the rebound in world oil prices and a temporary jump in food prices.
NZ Local Knowledge - 10 April 2017
Activity indicators were subdued in February, after moderate results in recent months. Trends in agriculture production have improved and sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, while the housing market has flattened off.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 5 April 2017
NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, March quarter 2017 - 4 April 2017
Firms remained upbeat about their own activity in the March quarter, indicative of a decent pace of economic growth through the first half of this year. Pricing intentions rose for a second quarter, but we view these increases as consistent with a pick-up in inflation to moderate levels rather than a sustained over-shoot of the Reserve Bank’s target.
RBNZ OCR Review, March 2017 - Hold the line - 23 March 2017
The Reserve Bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% and maintained that interest rates will remain low for a considerable time. Near-term inflation is shaping up stronger than expected, but the RBNZ seems to share our view that this is due to temporary factors.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 22 March 2017
RBNZ OCR preview, March 2017 – The little engine that could? - 17 March 2017
We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 1.75% and maintain a neutral bias. Near-term inflation is looking a bit stronger, but recent data casts some doubt on whether the economy is running strong enough to generate a sustained lift in inflation.
Q4 GDP-Review-March-2017 - 16 March 2017
GDP rose by 0.4% in the December quarter, led by gains in services which are benefitting from the growing population base.
Q4 BOP-Review-March-2017 - 15 March 2017
The current account narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in the year to December.
Easing back – NZ GDP and Current Account Preview, Q4 2016 - 10 March 2017
We expect a modest 0.5% rise in December quarter GDP, with declines in primary production and manufacturing weighing on growth. A rebound in tourism exports and lower import prices are likely to have narrowed the current account deficit.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 8 March 2017
NZ construction activity continuing to climb - 3 March 2017
Construction activity continued to increase in December quarter, with widespread gains. We expect construction levels will remain strong for some time.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 22 February 2017
NZ Q4 retail sales review - 17 February 2017
The December quarter saw only a moderate gain in retail spending, with sales volumes up 0.8%. While spending growth in the past two quarters has been on the soft side, this follows strong gains earlier in the year. Over the year as whole, we saw a solid 4% lift in spending volumes.
RBNZ February 2017 MPS review - 9 February 2017
At its February interest rate decision, the Reserve Bank kept the Official Cash Rate at 1.75%. We expect the OCR to remain on hold for an extended period.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 8 February 2017
NZ Local Knowledge - 7 February 2017
Activity indicators were mixed in December, consistent with a solid but not spectacular end to the year for GDP growth. But with population growth continuing to run hot, the picture on a per-capita basis remains much more moderate.
RBNZ MPS preview, February 2017 – No need for further action - 2 February 2017
We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 1.75% and maintain a neutral bias. Inflation is finally back within the target range but will struggle to pick up much further this year. And financial conditions have already tightened significantly since November.
NZ Q4 2016 labour market review - The force is strong with this one - 1 February 2017
NZ unemployment rose by more than expected in Q4 as the labour force continued to grow. Jobs growth was slightly stronger than expected, however wage growth remains muted.
Tis the season - NZ Consumer Price Index review, Q4 2016 - 26 January 2017
Annual inflation has finally lifted back within the RBNZ’s target band. However, we suspect that some of the December quarter’s strength will be short-lived, and that inflation will struggle to push much higher over 2017.
NZ Q4 labour market preview - 25 January 2017
We’re expecting to see further growth in employment in December on the back of firm economic activity.
Getting the band back - NZ Consumer Price Index preview, Q4 2016 - 19 January 2017
We expect annual inflation to rise to 1.2% in the December quarter, bringing it back within RBNZ’s target band for the first time in more than two years.
Fortnightly Agri Update - 18 January 2017
Pause for breath – NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, December quarter 2016 - 17 January 2017
Business confidence and firms’ expectations for their own activity eased back in the December quarter, but remain at levels consistent with a continuation of solid economic growth. There was a notable rise in firms’ pricing intentions, although underlying price pressures look a bit softer than the headline figures suggest.
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