Economic & financial forecasts

Our latest economic and financial forecasts and Quarterly Economic Overview.

New Zealand economic and financial forecasts

Our forecasts for the New Zealand economy, interest rates and exchange rates.

Latest Forecasts (xls)

 

Quarterly Economic Overview

An in-depth discussion of the economic outlook, topical issues and forecasts.

February 2018
Stats NZ has revised the history of GDP to something that makes more sense. The New Zealand economy was on fire during 2015 and 2016, but slowed in 2017. We expect it will remain slow in 2018 due to a weak housing market and low business confidence. The economy will not be strong enough to generate much inflation, so we expect the OCR to remain on hold until late 2019. Meanwhile, inflation is appearing in the United States, and US interest rates are set to start rising more aggressively. Later this year the US Government may be paying higher interest rates on 10-year bonds than the New Zealand Government. This hasn’t happened since 1994, and will surely have consequences for the exchange rate. 

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