Economic research & market strategy
Here you will find economic research, strategy and forecasts direct from our specialists.
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Daily and weekly reports
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Economic Data Reports
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Deeper Insights
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Quarterly Publications
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Economic & Financial Forecasts
Weekly Commentary
Weekly coverage of recent and upcoming economic and market events.
Weekly Forex and Interest Rate Outlook
Weekly coverage of rates and key themes influencing currency and interest rates.
Morning Report
Coverage of the latest economic and market events.
Economic Data, Interest & Exchange Rates
Previews and reviews of the latest economic data releases
NZ Government Budget 2013 Review - 16 May 2013
Another cautious budget delivered in better economic circumstances.
Budget 2013 First Impressions - 16 May 2013
Save the lollies 'till next year.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 16 May 2013
Q1 Retail Sales Review - 14 May 2013
Steady growth in retail spending, reflecting the pace of recovery in the broader economy.
Budget 2013 preview - 14 May 2013
Plans for a return to surplus by 2015 are on track, but with little wiggle room for new spending initiatives at this stage.
Q1 Household Labour Force Survey - 9 May 2013
A pervasively strong HLFS, closing the gap with other labour market indicators.
RBNZ May 2013 Financial Stability Report - 8 May 2013
Heightened concerns about the effect of low interest rates on the housing market lead the RBNZ to impose a larger safety buffer on the major banks.
Q1 Labour Cost Index and Quarterly Employment Survey - 7 May 2013
Wage inflation and employment growth remain subdued.
Official cash rate review - 24 April 2013
The RBNZ struck a balance between high growth and low inflation, maintaining the "on hold" outlook for the OCR.
Official cash rate preview - 19 April 2013
We expect the RBNZ to maintain its "on hold" stance for the OCR, while emphasising risks on both sides of the outlook.
Q1 Consumer Price Index review - 18 April 2013
Inflation remains low as expected, with the high NZ dollar keeping tradables prices down and construction cost inflation still limited to the Canterbury region.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 17 April 2013
Drought, Chinese Mums, and the price of milk - 16 April 2013
We take a look at the unexpected consequences of the 2013 New Zealand drought
Q4 Consumer Price Index preview - 12 April 2013
Another sub-1% inflation print expected, with the strong NZ dollar countering a gradual build-up in domestic price pressures.
Home Truths - April 2013
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Q1 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - 9 April 2013
The economy continued its strong run in Q1, and spare capacity is tightening. Inflation remains low for now, but this auspicious mix won't last.
Q4 GDP review - 21 March 2013
An even harder than expected rebound in growth, but consistent with our view that low interest rates and the Canterbury rebuild will stimulate the domestic economy.
Home Truths - March 2013
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Q4 Current Account Review - 20 March 2013
New Zealand’s current account deficit widened to 5.0% of GDP in the December quarter as imbalances re-emerge.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 20 March 2013
Where should we build? - 19 March 2013
A look at housing supply and the construction outlook in all regions of New Zealand except Canterbury.
Q4 GDP and Current Account preview - 18 March 2013
The New Zealand economy appears to have bounced back from a mid-2012 soft patch, with broad-based growth in the December quarter.
March 2013 MPS Review - 14 March 2013
RBNZ repeated its 'on hold' message but turned the spotlight on the downside risks if the exchange rate remains high.
MPS Preview - 8 March 2013
We expect the RBNZ will repeat its uncomplicated outlook for the OCR - it is on hold.
Tool time - 4 March 2013
A first look at the Reserve Bank's suite of macroprudential policy tools - their purpose, the options, and when they might first be used.
Q4 Terms of Trade - 1 March 2013
New Zealand’s terms of trade clocked up its sixth consecutive fall in Q4, decreasing 1.3%.
A season of two halves - 1 March 2013
A primer on dry weather in New Zealand
Credit Check - 28 February 2013
Realities of NZD intervention - 22 February
All you need to know about the Reserve Bank's approach to exchange rate intervention.
When rising tides don’t lift all boats - 20 February 2013
Household Income Growth since 2008
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 20 February 2013
Home Truths - February 2013
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Q4 Labour Cost Index and Quarterly Employment Survey 5 February 2013
Wage pressures from the Canterbury rebuild are evident, but remain well-contained.
Q4 Labour Market Preview - 1 February 2013
We expect a modest correction in the volatile Household Labour Force Survey.
Credit Check - 31 January 2013
Official cash rate review - 31 January 2013
The RBNZ is more concerned that rising house prices could provoke inflation pressure and unbalance the economy - a sentiment we agree with strongly.
Q4 Consumer Price Index Review 18 January 2013
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% in the December quarter, a bit softer than expected. Annual inflation rose slightly from a 13-year low.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 17 January 2013
Home Truths - January 2013
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Q4 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - 15 January
Firms reported a robust pick-up in activity in Q4, with little inflation pressures to speak of.
Q4 Consumer Price Index preview - 14 January
Prices expected to be flat for the quarter, but with annual inflation starting to lift from a 13-year low.
Loose impressions - 21 December
Q3 GDP review - 20 December
A flat economy outside of construction, but reason to see this as the low point for the year.
Q3 Current Account Review - 19 December
New Zealand’s current account deficit narrowed a touch to 4.7% of GDP in the September quarter.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 19 December
Half-Year Fiscal and Economic Update - 18 December
Changes around the margin leave the Government on track for surplus in three years. Long-term fiscal challenges will not be addressed so easily.
Q3 GDP and Current Account preview - 14 December
A flat economy in the September quarter, even with a sharp lift in construction and exports.
Home Truths - December
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
December MPS Review - 6 December
As expected, the RBNZ reiterated that the next move in the OCR is up, not down.
Q3 Building Work Put in Place - 5 December
A 9.6% lift in building activity as the Canterbury rebuild kicks into gear and Auckland starts to address its shortfall.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 5 December
Q3 Terms of Trade 3 December
New Zealand's terms of trade clocked up its fifth consecutive fall in the September quarter, decreasing 3.2%.
MPS Preview December 2012 - 29 November
We expect the RBNZ to reiterate the "on hold for now" OCR outlook, but the discussion of risks could shift towards the housing market.
Loose impressions - 23 November
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 21 November
Q3 Retail Sales Review - 14 November
A fall in retail spending underscores the economy's recent slowdown, albeit one that we think was contained to Q3.
Home Truths - 9 November
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Q3 Household Labour Force Survey - 8 November
A shocker of a labour market report.
Q3 Labour Market Preview - 1 November
The economy weakened over the September quarter, as did indicators of the labour market.
Credit Check - 31 October
Loose impressions - 31 October
First impressions - 26 October
RBNZ Governor Wheeler's first speech is the essential guide to how monetary policy will be conducted in coming years.
Official cash rate review - 25 October
RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s first OCR review statement offered little advance on recent statements, dampening market speculation of a more dovish approach.
No ordinary OCR - 19 October
There has been little in the data to change the RBNZ’s “on hold” outlook for the OCR.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 17 October
Q3 Consumer Price Index Review - 19 October
General inflation well contained due to soft growth and the legacy of a higher NZ dollar; but construction cost inflation is creeping in.
Q3 Consumer Price Index preview - 12 October
Annual inflation is expected to briefly dip below 1%, but the disinflationary forces of the last year or so are fading.
Q3 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - 9 October
Firms reported tougher times in Q3, but remain cautiously optimistic about the near term, particularly with the Christchurch rebuild picking up.
Home Truths - 08 October
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 3 October
Credit Check - 28 September
Loose impressions - 26 September
Policy Targets Agreement - 20 September
The new Policy Targets Agreement has tightened up on the definition of inflation, while introducing a new focus on asset prices.
Q2 GDP review - 20 September
A second quarter of stronger than expected growth, led by agriculture and construction.
Q2 Current Account Review - 19 September
New Zealand’s current account deficit widened to 4.9% of GDP in the June quarter.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 19 September
Q2 GDP and Current Account preview - 14 September
Slower growth in activity relative to the March quarter, and weaker export conditions adding to the international imbalance.
September MPS Review - 13 September
Alan Bollard will leave the RBNZ in good shape after 80 OCR reviews.
Home Truths - 10 September
Westpac's monthly analysis of New Zealand's housing market.
September MPS Preview - 7 September
A broadly unchanged outlook from June, with interest rates firmly on hold.
Q2 Building Work Put in Place - 3 September
Today’s Building Activity Survey showed a 0.8% lift in building work.
Fortnightly Dairy Update - 5 September
Q2 Terms of Trade - 3 September
New Zealand’s terms of trade fell 2.6% in the June quarter.
Loose Impressions - 29 August
NZ Q2 real retail sales - 14 August
Real retail sales rose a hefty 1.3% in the June quarter.
Q2 Household Labour Force Survey - 9 August
A stubbornly soft labour market, despite mounting evidence that the economy has picked up steam.
Q2 Labour Cost Index and Quarterly Employment Survey - 7 August
QES employment and hours paid surprisingly strong but little sign of rising wage pressure.
Q2 Labour Market Preview - 3 August
Another soft labour market report likely despite rising surveyed skill shortages.
OCR Review - 26 July
RBNZ firmly on hold, unfazed by current low headline inflation.
Loose impressions - 20 July
Mixed indicators in June, with many settling down after a May bounce.
OCR Preview July 2012 - 19 July
RBNZ expected to leave OCR on hold, emphasising low inflation. We now expect a first OCR hike in July 2013.
Q2 Consumer Price Index Review 17 July
Annual inflation hits a 12-year low, with housing-related inflation not consistently shining through yet.
Q2 Consumer Price Index Preview 11 July
Subdued inflation for now, but watch for housing-related inflation as house values rise and quake rebuilding progresses.
Q2 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion 10 July
General confidence hit by global events, while domestic activity is becoming more construction-oriented.
Loose impressions - 5 July
Eurogeddon - 3 July
An investigation into what would become of New Zealand in a scenario of financial meltdown in Europe.
New man at the helm 26 June
Graeme Wheeler has been appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, effective 25 September.
Q1 GDP review 21 June
Growth is picking up this year as we anticipated, although the 1.1% rise in Q1 probably overstates the case.
Q1 Current Account Deficit - 20 June
New Zealand’s current account deficit widened to 4.8% of GDP in the March quarter, led by a narrowing goods surplus and a larger services deficit.
Q1 GDP and Current Account preview 15 June
Faster growth and a wider deficit expected as the economy shows more signs of life than in the past two years.
June MPS Review - 14 June
OCR unchanged at 2.50%, RBNZ reiterates on-hold stance
Q1 Building work put in place 6 June
Building activity fell 0.4% in the March quarter, but the pace of growth in Canterbury continues to outstrip the rest of the country.
June OCR Preview 6 June 2012
RBNZ expected to leave OCR on hold but emphasise ability to cut in need.
Q1 Terms of Trade 1 June
New Zealand's terms of trade registered its third consecutive fall in the March quarter, declining 2.3%.
Budget 2012 review 24 May
A conservative budget befitting these uncertain times. But does the Government have a plan to deal with population aging?
Budget 2012 preview 18 May
Another year with no net new spending, as the Government tries to rein in the deficit by 2015.
Q1 Retail Sales Review 14 May
A 1.5% pullback from last year's Rugby World Cup boost, but signs of improving local demand as well.
Q1 Household Labour Force Survey 3 May
While a lift in construction-related employment is underway, the broader labour market has yet to stage a convincing recovery.
Q1 Labour Market review 1 May 2012
Wage inflation remains contained, in line with the RBNZ's expectations.
OCR Review April 2012
RBNZ firmly on hold, and the risk of easing in response to the high NZ dollar shouldn't be dismissed.
Q1 Labour Market preview 27 April
Surveys indicate a modest fall in unemployment, and wage growth remaining subdued.
Official Cash Rate Preview 20 April
A modestly dovish tone, as the RBNZ edges further away from signalling interest rate hikes.
Q1 Consumer Price Index Review 19 April
Consumer prices up modestly as expected, but some surprising strength in housing-related inflation.
Q1 Consumer Price Index Preview 13 April
We expect a 0.5% increase, with risks around housing-related costs and the impact of the strong NZ dollar.
Q1 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion 11 April
Business confidence higher, but suggests continued slow growth for now until reconstruction ramps up later this year.
Q4 GDP Review 22 March
Less growth than expected, but signs of improving domestic demand and progress on rebuilding.
Q4 Current Account Review 21 March
New Zealand’s current account balance narrowed modestly to -4% of GDP in Dec 2011
Three point of a triangle 19 March
The debate on New Zealand interest rates has fractured into three points of a triangle. This could throw up interesting scenarios in the year ahead.
Q4 GDP Preview 16 March
We estimate that GDP grew an about-trend 0.6%, led by improving domestic demand and favourable growing conditions.
Q4 Current Account Preview 15 March
Q4 current account deficit is forecast to narrow slightly to -4% of GDP on the back of an improvement in the goods balance.
MPS (March) Review 8 March
The RBNZ expects faster growth but believes that the high NZ dollar will take care of inflation pressures.
Q4 Building work put in place 5 March
A strong pick-up in building work in Canterbury led nationwide building activity higher in Q4.
MPS (March) Preview 5 March
The RBNZ will project slower rate hikes and the high exchange rate is likely to come in for some attention.
Q4 Terms of Trade 1 March
The terms of trade is sliding from exceptionally high levels as external conditions have become more challenging.
Q4 Retail Sales Review 15 Feb
Retail spending boosted by the Rugby World Cup as well as signs of improving local demand.
Q4 Household Labour Force Survey 9 Feb
Unemployment fell, but the details were less rosy.
Q4 Labour Cost Index and Quaterly Employment Survey 7 Feb
Wage growth a bit stronger than expected but subdued overall.
Q4 Labour Market Preview 2 Feb
Surveys point to employment picking up, but unemployment staying high
Changing the watch 1 Feb
Prospects for the RBNZ as Governor Alan Bollard announces he will step down in September.
Official Cash Rate Review 26 Jan
The RBNZ signals a longer wait for rate hikes as Europe's woes and Canterbury's rebuild play out.
Official Cash Rate Preview 23 Jan
The recent easing in inflation pressures gives the RBNZ room to wait and see.
Q4 Consumer Price Index Review 19 Jan
Prices unexpectedly fall as consumers benefit from domestic competition and the strong NZD.
Q4 NZIER Quarterly Survey of Busiiness Opinion 17 Jan
Confidence down as global risks mount and local activity slows, but Canterbury remains positive.
Q4 Consumer Price Index Preview 12 Jan
Unemployment fell, but the details were less rosy.
In-depth review of topical issues.
Deeper insights
- Drought, Chinese Mums, and the price of milk - 16 April 2013
We take a look at the unexpected consequences of the 2013 New Zealand drought - Where should we build? - 19 March 2013
A look at housing supply and the construction outlook in all regions of New Zealand except Canterbury. - Tool time - 4 March
A first look at the Reserve Bank's suite of macroprudential policy tools - their purpose, the options, and when they might first be used. - A season of two halves - 1 March 2013
A primer on dry weather in New Zealand -
Realities of NZD intervention - 22 February
All you need to know about the Reserve Bank's approach to exchange rate intervention. - When rising tides don’t lift all boats - 20 February 2013
Household Income Growth since 2008 - President Obama and the Fiscal Cliff - 12 November 2012
Without an agreement over the fiscal cliff, the US is facing a potential 4ppt reduction in net government spending in FY2013 that would almost surely result in a recession. - Gentlemen's agreement - 18 September 2012
Incoming RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is due to sign a new Policy Targets Agreement soon. We don't expect substantial changes to the document, which covers only a narrow aspect of the Governor's role - but bigger changes could be on the way in coming years. - Delever me - 11 September 2012
A closer look at the drivers of household debt. We conclude debt is likely to stay historically high, but grow more slowly than last decade. - Save us! - 20 August 2012
We review the evidence on New Zealand's saving performance and conclude it's probably not been as dire as official measures suggest. - Rebuilding a City - 16 August 2012
Here we collate some of the available evidence to build a picture of how the local economy and the rebuild are progressing. - Eurogeddon - 3 July 2012
An investigation into what would become of New Zealand in a scenario of financial meltdown in Europe. - New man at the helm 26 June 2012
Graeme Wheeler has been appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, effective 25 September. - Nice for now - 27 March 2012
The New Zealand housing is resurgent for now, but the cheer may not last. - Three point of a triangle 19 March 2012
The debate on New Zealand interest rates has fractured into three points of a triangle. This could throw up interesting scenarios in the year ahead. - Time to fix - 2 March 2012
The balance of risks for mortgage borrowers now favours fixing. - Changing the watch 1 February 2012
Prospects for the RBNZ as Governor Alan Bollard announces he will step down in September. - The construction sector: past, present and future - 14 December 2011
The construction sector has been a notable area of weakness in the New Zealand economy over the last few years, however we expect a significant turnaround in fortunes ahead, driven by building in Auckland and Canterbury. - Hold your horses - 9 December 2011
Our model predicts the NZD/AUD exchange rate will eventually rise to a more normal level, but not before global credit conditions improve. - The turning Tide - 23 November 2011
An analysis of trans-Tasman migration and how it relates to Australian and NZ unemployment. - Digesting Dairy Prices - 18 August 2011
A discussion of the outlook for dairy prices in an uncertain world. - Ear to the ground - 10 August 2011
Anecdotes about the rebuild from Christchurch - US Fiscal Folly - 4 August 2011
US lawmakers dodge a self-inflicted crisis, but do little to address the fiscal malaise that affects all levels of Government. - Disasters in history - 8 July 2011
A review of the lessons from the Napier, Kobe and Chile earthquakes, as well as Hurricane Katrina. - A matter of Exchange - 24 June 2011
We review the links between saving, interest rates, and the exchange rate, and interrogate some dubious claims. - Forestry Sector Overview - 10 June 2011
An overview of one of New Zealand's key primary industries including a discussion of the differing fortunes of forest growers and wood processors. - Shape of things to come - 7 March 2011
Discusses how the Christchurch Earthquake has radically altered the New Zealand's economic outlook - Why so glum? - 15 December 2010
Global financial stress has been a key driver of the low NZD/AUD exchange rate since 2009. - Raising interest - 28 September 2010
Investigates the responsiveness of retail bank deposits to interest rates. - Shaky Isles - 6 September 2010
Assessment of the possible impact of the September 2010 Canterbury earthquake. - Crossing the line - 23 August 2010
NZD/AUD exchange rate model update - Being effective - 17 August 2010
The last of our series on the interest rate landscape shows that borrowing costs have continued to ease even without RBNZ action. - Neutral about neutral - 16 August 2010
The third instalment in our series on the new interest rate landscape discusses the neutral OCR, a concept that proves surprisingly elusive. - A matter of interest - 12 August 2010
The second of our series on the new interest rate landscape, we trace through six important flow-on effects from higher bank funding costs. - Before and after - 9 August 2010
In the first of a series on the new interest rate landscape, we review how bank funding has been affected by the Global Financial Crisis. - House prices - further to fall - 2 July 2010
We believe house prices have further to fall, not least because of a change to the rate of income tax which has reduced the tax incentive to invest in rental property. - Ease the squeeze, please - 25 June 2010
New Zealand is building too few houses to keep up with population growth – a housing squeeze lies ahead. - The big GST step - 12 February 2010
Tax reforms should provide improved incentives over the longer term, but not without sizeable disruptions at the time of implementation. - Sectoral performance (Dom) - 15 January 2010
Winners and losers in the recession and recovery. - Tax and house prices - 16 December 2009
Changes to the tax system are likely to reduce house values. - Split fortunes - 4 December 2009
Manufacturers have been squeezed by rising costs and a strong NZ dollar. An improving world economy will help some sectors, but non-food manufacturing will continue to lag. - This time is different - 25 November 2009
Eight decades of recoveries. - Housing encore - 12 November 2009
Update on the New Zealand housing market. - Buffet or buffer - 24 September 2009
Does the exchange rate hinder or help commodity exporters? - No need to get cross - 15 September 2009
NZD/AUD model update. - Getting more for your money - 20 August 2009
Consumers weren’t the only party animals this decade – a stronger terms of trade underpinned spending and borrowing across all sectors. - Variable gravity - 20 August 2009
Practices in the NZ housing market are vastly different to those in the US. - The return of HEW - 10 August 2009
Homeowners have switched from drawing on housing wealth to accumulating it – though the pace is slowing. - When cash is not currency - 10 August 2009
The relationship between the OCR and the exchange rate is not stable enough to serve as a policy lever. - Funding it tough - 23 June 2009
Running the ruler over claims about bank margins in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. - Flu jab - 18 June 2009
The potential impact of an H1N1 influenza epidemic on the NZ economy. - Flash in the pan - 4 June 2009
Housing pickup unsustainable - The money tree - 17 April 2009
Quantitative easing: what it is, and the chances of NZ going down this path. - A changing climate - 4 March 2009
New Zealand’s options for addressing climate change. - Eurogeddon - An investigation into what would become of New Zealand in a scenario of financial meltdown in Europe.
- New man at the helm - Graeme Wheeler has been appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, effective 25 September.
- Three point of a triangle - The debate on New Zealand interest rates has fractured into three points of a triangle. This could throw up interesting scenarios in the year ahead.
- Changing the watch - Prospects for the RBNZ as Governor Alan Bollard announces he will step down in September
NZ Occasional Papers
Economic Overview
Quarterly publication providing an in-depth economic outlook, topical issues and forecasts.
- May 2013
The New Zealand economy is caught in a tug-of-war between high GDP growth and low inflation. The May Economic Overview includes articles on the New Zealand economy, New Zealand dollar, inflation and interest rates, and the international outlook. Our new section, Agricultural Outlook, covers the impact of drought on the New Zealand economy. And our special topic discusses the Reserve Bank's macroprudential tools. - February 2013
The economy is starting to move as the Canterbury rebuild hits its straps. But the stratospheric exchange rate has kept inflation in check. So the RBNZ has been able to keep interest rates low. The predictable result has been improved consumer confidence and higher house prices. Our forecasts for 2013 follow the same formula, but with greater intensity on all fronts. - November 2012
After a strong start to 2012, the New Zealand economy has lost momentum, reflecting the patchiness of the current construction-led economic upturn.
- August 2012
Growth is accelerating but low inflation and the strong exchange rate mean interest rates will stay low for longer. This edition of the Economic Outlook discusses the possibility that rising house prices will reignite New Zealand's economic imbalances. - May 2012
The global economy has cooled as expected, but the surprisingly strong NZ dollar and soft inflation point to low interest rates for a while longer. - February 2012
Export conditions are deteriorating, but we envisage a dip rather than a disaster. Low interest rates will boost the housing market.
AgriBiz
Quarterly focus on rural developments, trends and outlook.
- January 2013
In this quarter’s Agribiz, we look at why lamb prices fell hard over 2012 while beef prices remained at near record highs, and take a look at the prospects for rural land market.
- October 2012
In this quarter’s Agribiz we look at some of the risks higher global food prices bring for the global economy, and investigate what impact higher grain prices might have on prices of key New Zealand exports such as meat and dairy. - July 2012
In this quarter’s Agribiz we examine recent moves in dairy prices and look at what the outlook might be from here. - April 2012
In the April Agribiz, we shine a spotlight on recent developments in the meat sector. - January 2012
The international outlook remains stormy, and in this quarter's Agribiz we take a closer look at what this might mean for interest rates and the NZD.