Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.

Weekly Economics Video Update

16 November:

Back in August we predicted a short-term pickup in the housing market around New Year. That is exactly how things are playing out. But we think the market upturn will lose steam during 2019, and house prices will fall in the early-2020s.

9 November:

The Reserve Bank dropped the idea that the OCR might go down, following a rash of strong data including a decade-low in unemployment. But the RBNZ remains resolute that the OCR won’t go up until mid-2020, even though their own forecasts concede that inflation and employment will overshoot target on a sustained basis.

 

Monthly Agri Economic Insights

We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.

2 November:

Farmer revenue may be OK, but costs are rising sharply. There are a range of causes, but one of the big ones is global oil prices, and that’s likely to reverse. The other driver of rising costs is the falling exchange rate. This is the flip side of the high revenue coin. 

5 October:

We have downgraded our milk price forecast on the back of sliding dairy prices in fortnightly GDT auctions. But it’s not just dairy prices that have been coming under pressure. International prices for a number of other key commodity exports have also been sliding.

7 September:

Global prices are falling for many NZ agricultural exports, but the plunging exchange rate is the backstop for rural new Zealand.