Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this two-minute weekly video.
Today's budget included forecasts of strong economic growth, ongoing surpluses, and plunging net debt. We are sceptical. The economy will probably fall short of the Treasury's expectations. Or else the "surpluses" will be spent on tax cuts. Either way, we doubt that net debt will really fall as far as today's budget implied.
In next week's budget, the Treasury is likely to forecast strong surpluses and falling debt. We are sceptical, because we fear the economy will weaken later this decade.
More evidence that New Zealand is on a borrow-and-spend binge, with rising house prices and strong consumer spending.
Strong employment growth has provided further evidence that the NZ economy is performing surprisingly well. Low interest rates, rising house prices and a borrow-and-spend dynamic among households are masking the impact of the dairy downturn.
We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.
Global commodity prices and the exchange rate have been more stable over the past month, but rural NZ is still enduring adverse conditions. That said, regional economies are not feeling the pinch like you might have expected.
Global economic sentiment has improved over the past month, but that is not translating into much joy for New Zealand's key exporters.
After a rough start to the year for many parts of the agricultural sector, developments in the last month have been a little more mixed.
The outlooks for New Zealand's primary industries are quite divergent, depending on each industry's exposure to struggling developing countries versus the go-ahead rich world.
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