Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this two-minute weekly video.
This week we step back and take stock of where New Zealand is in the economic cycle.
Retail trade data confirms that business conditions were fairly positive in the September quarter. But falling dairy prices and falling retail prices indicate that the economy is indeed on track to slow, and that the OCR will need to fall below 2.5%.
The Auckland housing market is now suffering the hangover from its recent excesses, with investors having done their dash ahead of the new tax rules in October. This will give the Reserve Bank some of the leeway it needs to cut interest rates further.
A softening labour market, a retracement in dairy prices and new housing regulations all lean in favour of further interest rate cuts.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this bite-sized monthly video updates.
We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.
The dairy price rollercoaster continues, with markets seemingly unconvinced by either the extent of drought risks or predictions of a Chinese baby boom.
Dairy farmers' fortunes have improved dramatically in the last month. But we question whether the fundamentals of the global dairy market have really changed all that much.
A global economic slowdown, led by China, will be felt by many New Zealand primary exporters. But dairy is dancing to its own beat - we have lifted our forecast of this season's farmgate milk price.
Plunging dairy prices will be a serious challenge for the whole economy. We foresee slower GDP growth, rising unemployment, a falling exchange rate and the OCR dropping to 2.0%. But the last two of these will be very helpful for many other primary industries.
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