Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this two-minute weekly video.
This week we explore why regions of New Zealand have been experiencing such divergent fortunes in recent years... and, sadly, we predict that the two-speed economy is set to intensify over the year ahead.
GDP data has revealed much weaker economic growth than anticipated. Consequently, we now expect the Reserve Bank to reduce the OCR at least twice more this year.
The RBNZ has cut the OCR on concern about low dairy farm incomes. The unintended consequence will be more house price inflation.
A week of poor economic data has bolstered the case for OCR cuts, but we still doubt that the RBNZ will reduce the OCR next week.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this bite-sized monthly video updates.
We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.
Weak returns in the dairy sector might come onto the Reserve Bank's financial stability radar over the year ahead, with important implications for farmers.
We are looking for a farmgate milk price next season of $5.70 per kg - this month's video asks whether this is the new normal. Meanwhile, there is actually quite a divergence in fortunes between New Zealand's main agricultural export products.
It looks as though the summer drought had a less severe impact on the rural economy than initially feared... but as drought fears have subsided, dairy prices have come under renewed downward pressure.
Dry weather remains the biggest consideration for the farming sector. Dairy prices have benefitted to some degree, but beef and lamb prices have suffered.
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