Bite-sized video updates on the New Zealand economy and markets.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this two-minute weekly video.
The RBNZ has referred to the possibility of OCR cuts. The consequence will be lower mortgage rates, adding more fuel to the housing market fire. We expect and end-game in which the RBNZ will have to tighten its restrictions on mortgage lending.
Inflation is low and the exchange rate is rising on a trade-weighted basis. OCR hikes are now a very distant prospect. The more interesting discussion is whether the RBNZ will reduce the OCR this year.
The plunge in world oil prices will help to cement low inflation and low interest rates over the course of this year.
New data from Statistics New Zealand has helped to solve the mystery of low inflation in New Zealand. This is our last video for 2014. We will be back on January 17th... until then, have a happy holiday.
Chief Economist Dominick Stephens presents economic insights in this bite-sized monthly video updates.
We hope you find these updates helpful in shaping a view of what's in store for you beyond the farm gate.
Dairy prices have plunged this year, beef prices have soared, and most other commodity exports have seen modest price gains.
World dairy prices may have stabilised at low levels. But any substantial improvement in prices next year will require a moderation in global milk production.
Falling world dairy prices herald a further cut in the milk price for this season. A weaker New Zealand dollar has helped to soften the blow, but the conditions for a large, sustained drop in the currency don't seem to be in place.
Dairy and meat prices continue to diverge. Meanwhile, markets have taken their eye off the rate-hike ball, giving borrowers a great opportunity to fix their interest rates.
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